Despite the unceasing conflicts among the political elite, the ailing economy, and state’s malfunction in face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tunisian state is still intact and terrorist organizations are still away. In that sense, it is extremely important that respective influencers in the MENA region and the international community, while watching the current turmoil, to make sure that Tunisia will not slide into the same dark hole of state collapse and terrorism, wherein other Arab Spring countries have fallen.
Whether Tunisian President Kais Saied’s recent decisions to freeze the Parliament and dismiss the government is considered a coup or not, that is not the right question to ask. In a video statement, published by the Presidential Bureau, on Sunday, August 1st, President Kais Saied asserted that he is not trying to establish an authoritarian state. "There is no withdrawal from respecting rights and freedoms, and there is no room for infringement or assault on them," confirmed Saied. He clearly noted that he willingly chose to stand by the people to “preserve the unity of the state and protect it from the corruption that is decaying its joints.” Saied concluded his message by saying: "Insha’Allah, we will win! It is a war, but without bullets or blood. It is a war based on the law. A war for justice and freedom. We will keep our oath and our responsibility, all the way.”
The international community needs to clear its ears from the propaganda promoted by the Islamists, to be able to see the full picture in Tunisia and appropriately help the Tunisian people survive the current crisis. The problem of Tunisia is much bigger and much deeper than having Islamists in power or the widening disagreement between the three authorities ruling the country via the flawed three-presidencies regime.
According to governmental statistics, unemployment rates in Tunisia jumped from 14% to 17.4%, at the last quarter of 2020, as a result of an economic contraction that hit a record rate of 8.2%, in September 2020. According to a survey conducted by the World Bank, in cooperation with the governmental National Institute of Statistics, in 2020, poverty rate in Tunisia has risen to t 15.2%. At least, 30% of the surveyed families, stated that they fear running out of food, amid the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic. In mid-July, the record of COVID-19 cases, in Tunisia, exceeded two-thousand new cases per day. That forced neighbor countries to close their borders with or suspend flights to Tunisia; turning the country into a big prison for the already-suffering Tunisian people.
Meanwhile, terrorist organizations are standing like hungry hyenas at Tunisia’s doors, impatiently waiting for state collapse or the eruption of domestic violence. Some of the terrorist organizations operating in Libya, which is located right at Tunisia’s eastern borders, has been recruiting extremist Tunisian youth among them, for years. In the newsletter of the Islamic State (ISIS), published on Thursday, July 30th, the terrorist organization dedicated an entire page for the turmoil in Tunisia, wherein ISIS claimed that the Islamists of Tunisia are cursed and are now paying the price for committing the sin of “leaving the path of Sharia and Jihad, while choosing the path of democracy and peacefulness.” In the newsletter, ISIS, also, vowed to benefit from the current turmoil in Tunisia to extend their mission in the region.
In light of all these political, economic, and security complications, working for fast recovery of the Tunisian state is the top priority, right now. That cannot only happen through restoring the political order and resetting the quest for democratization. The rescue process must primarily include setting a solid program for ending corruption and starting an economic reform process.
In a direct communication with the Tunisian President Kais Said, in the past weeks, several Arab leaders – that Saied declined to name - offered to help Tunisia recover from its economic depression. However, this requires first helping Kais Saied navigate through the current turmoil and put the political wheels at work, once again. It is highly unlikely that he will be able to do that before the end of the thirty days of freezing the Parliament, i.e. by August 24th. Yet, this should happen as soon as possible to avoid the eruption of domestic violence or the intervention of terrorist organizations.