In the past few weeks, the boss fights among the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, who are scattered between Britain and Turkey, have escalated to an unprecedented bar. The main determining factor for the future of the group, under the current circumstances, is the response of the international political and financial sponsors of the Muslim Brotherhood to the recent battle between the “enemy brothers” in London and Istanbul.
Over its long history, the Muslim Brotherhood witnessed several episodes of fierce power struggles between the leaders, as well as irremediable fractures between the leadership and the base members, especially the youth. However, this is the first time for internal disputes to take place, while the external political and financial support network of the group is too weak to intervene. This support network was awfully stretched, over the past decade, to keep the group intact for as long as possible, especially after their fall from power in Egypt. The political and jihadist cores of the Muslim Brotherhood have been decaying since the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood regime from the highest peak of political power in Egypt, eight years ago.
The most important pillar in the Muslim Brotherhood’s support network, that is currently weakening, is the Turkey-Qatar axis. On one hand, Qatar has been providing the Muslim Brotherhood’s leaders, based in Istanbul, with generous funding, since 2014. According to leaked documents by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood youth in Turkey, Mahmoud Hussein’s front, based in Istanbul, used to receive an amount close to two million dollars from Qatar every month. Meanwhile, Ibrahim Munir’s front, based in London, depends on donations from Muslim Brotherhood members in Europe and their affiliated Muslim charity organizations in Europe and the United States.
On the other hand, Turkey provided the fleeing Muslim Brotherhood leaders with the safe land to refuge to and work from. The Turkish President Erdogan has been voicing unconditional support to the Muslim Brotherhood, even though this costed him to lose relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, and thus affected Turkey’s geo-economic interests in the eastern Mediterranean.
However, the Turkey-Qatar coordinated support to the Muslim Brotherhood have greatly declined after the Arab Gulf reconciliation, in January, and the beginning of sincere rapprochement efforts between Turkey and Egypt. In the past few months, the Turkish Intelligence applied restrictive measures on Muslim Brotherhood activities inside Turkey, especially the media activities targeting the distortion of the Egyptian state and president. Meanwhile, Qatar successfully restored its sisterly relationship with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE. As a result, the Muslim Brotherhood leadership in London had to close Muslim Brotherhood offices in Turkey and Qatar, three months ago.
In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood’s affiliated political parties, which are operating in focal Arab countries has been collapsing under popular pressures. In Morocco, in September, the Islamist “Justice and Development” Party lost legislative elections for a liberal party. In Jordan, last year, supreme Jordanian court ruled the dissolving of the Muslim Brotherhood organization, and thus put the “Islamic Action Front” Party in a tough corner. In Tunisia, the Islamist “Ennahda” Party, is currently disassembling as the popular support and political power of President Kais Said are rising.
Nevertheless, this does not necessarily mean the end of the century-old political Islamist organization of the Muslim Brotherhood. The breakdown of the old and rusty leadership could lead to the rebirth of a young and more vibrant generation of leaders, who may bring the organization to a position that is more compliant with the newly found power dynamics in the Middle East. Re-mobilizing the loosened cooperation between the anti-Muslim Brotherhood Arab alliance (of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain), in parallel to enhancing the revived relations between this Arab alliance with Qatar and Turkey; is crucial for ensuring that the Muslim Brotherhood’s support network will not jump to rescue the Muslim Brotherhood group from damaging itself.