In anticipation for the first visit of the United States President, Joseph Biden, to the Middle East, in mid-July, the meetings between the leaders of the Arab countries have not stopped. All similar visits by former American presidents to the Middle East were important. Each of them marked fundamental changes in the political and economic agendas of the region, that eventually echoed into the global policies of western countries, including the United States itself. In that sense, the Arab leaders want to make sure that their regional and individual priorities will not be disregarded, while Biden is giving the priority to handling the consequences of the war in eastern Europe.
According to an official statement by the White House, Biden is finally making his first visit to the region, as president, on 13-16 July. It took him two years in office, and a threat as huge as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to realize how important the Middle East for the success of his administration. The drastic shift in Biden’s stance towards the Middle East, from cold and distant to warm and open, is clearly a desperate attempt to redeem the lost popularity of his administration and his Democratic Party.
The American president’s schedule tells that his first stop will be in Israel, where he will meet with Israeli and Palestinian officials. Yet, it is highly unlikely that President Biden can actually make a difference in the frozen peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. The trauma of Biden administration’s slow response to the latest episode of war in Gaza, last year, is still unforgotten and unforgiven by many parties in the region. In addition, the political instability in the Israeli governmental structure is hindering any potential role that the United States can play to attract more Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel. Ironically, Biden’s Republican predecessor, President Trump, was much successful in that regard.
Actually, Trump was even more successful in communication with the leaders of the Gulf. The main part of Biden’s visit to the region will be happening in Jeddah, where he will attend a regional summit coined as ‘GCC+3 Summit.’ The summit is organized and hosted by Saudi Arabia, and will be attended by the leaders of all the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in addition to the heads of Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan.
The particular significance of Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, next week, is that, for the first time, the United States is trying to catch the train of regional change that is moving forward without its consent and despite its will, at a time when the western world is overwhelmed by the consequences of the war in Ukraine. What is even more interesting is that the driver of the new Middle East train is Saudi Arabia, the United States’ oldest ally in the Arab Gulf region, which President Biden unjustifiably labeled as an adversary to please his voters from the extreme leftists.
Therefore, Biden’s top goal of his prospected visit to the region should be to win the Middle East leaders on his side, so he can benefit from what they can offer to solve the current world troubles, especially the soaring economic crisis. To achieve that, Biden needs to follow Trump’s recipe if he wants to succeed with Gulf leaders. The pragmatic approach of the Trump Administration, which relied on ‘personal diplomacy’ was the perfect political language that the Middle East leaders could understand and respond to.
The current cluster of health, economic, and security crises, on the global stage, is causing an effect similar to that of the World Wars, in terms with its huge influence on changing the balance of power in the world. It is still in the hands of the Biden Administration to keep the United States on the top as the most powerful country, or simply leave the court open for eastern rivals – Russia and China – to emerge as the new superpowers of the newly emerging world order. The policy that the Biden Administration is going to adopt towards the Middle East, in the next half of his first term, is the determining factor in this world game of chess.