Tensions and Cooperation Patterns in the East Med | Dalia Ziada | The Atlantic Council & ISPI

I recently took part in a Washington, D.C. conference organized by The Atlantic Council and Italy's ISPI. The conference aimed to discuss the tensions and patterns of cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean. During my intervention, I focused on Egypt's policy in the region and its impact on the geopolitics and geo-economics of the area. The complexities of Egypt's domestic political repression and economic challenges were also discussed in relation to the Presidential Elections in Egypt and the Israel-Arab peace initiatives.

Egypt: A National Dialogue or A Political Maneuver?

Only one month after the official launch of the National Dialogue in Egypt, the coordinators called for a temporary freeze on future sessions. They justified the pause by claiming that the conference room dedicated to convening the sessions had been damaged in a mild sandstorm that swept Cairo on June 1. Given the illogicality of the claim, observers doubt that the dialogue coordinators halted the sessions as a result of the storm, but rather to avoid a clash between participating political parties over the recent violent attacks on the Egyptian Engineers’ Syndicate elections last week. 

Two days before the storm, a group launched a deliberate violent assault on the Egyptian Engineers’ Syndicate while voting on the continuity of the current syndicate leader, Tariq al-Nabarawy, who is independent of all political affiliations. The public prosecutor is currently investigating the shocking incident. Yet the footage captured by eyewitnesses and investigations conducted by the local press indicate that several Members of Parliament affiliated with the Mustakbal Watan (Future of the Nation) Party were leading the attackers and personally participated in the offensive.

Mustakbal Watan is the majority party in the current parliament. The party was founded in November 2014, a few months after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took office. Many of the old guards of the Mubarak regime joined this party and won most of the electoral districts loyal to Mubarak’s dissolved National Democratic Party (NDP). One of the Mustakbal Watan party-affiliated parliamentarians who appeared in the footage of the syndicate attacks was a prominent member of Mubarak’s NDP and was previously accused of hiring horses and camels to attack nonviolent protesters in Tahrir Square, during Egypt’s Arab Spring revolution in 2011.

In other words, it’s not the sandstorm that damaged the national dialogue’s prospects. It was the fact that this recent violent incident broadly exposed the dialogue’s fragility and lack of credibility. Even before the attack, the so-called “national dialogue” in Egypt had little to do with its glamourous title. It is neither a dialogue nor a national matter. Instead, it is a state-sponsored speaker series with an ever-extending time frame, carefully designed to co-opt weak but vocal opposition to President al-Sisi and to improve Cairo’s tarnished image in the West. 

The Mubarakists and Nasserists have been the most critical of Sisi’s policies over the past nine years. Central to their criticism are comparisons between the current era and their nostalgic memories of their respective eras of power. These groups feel a sense of estrangement under the current state, especially in regard to the state’s increasingly open bilateral and regional cooperation with Israel. The leftists, in particular, center animosity towards Israel in their political ideology.

Keeping these two particular groups busy under the guise of a national dialogue is one of the state’s strategies to calm political tensions and diffuse popular anger directed at the government as Egypt weathers the unprecedented economic crisis of the past year. In the meantime, such talks and gatherings can allow state representatives to make direct contact with prominent opposition figures, persuading them to ally with the state’s agenda before the anticipated 2024 presidential elections. Beyond this, however, the national dialogue is unlikely to deliver consequential results. 

The national dialogue organizers spent an entire year doing logistical preparations, forming committees and subcommittees, and hiring rapporteurs and other staff for these committees. Despite the long planning period, the organizers failed to invite key factions of Egyptian civil society to what was marketed as a “national, comprehensive, and all-inclusive” dialogue. 

Two groups have been deliberately excluded from joining the national dialogue. One of them is the Muslim Brotherhood—an illegal organization in Egypt—while the other is pro-west, pro-regional peace activists and civil society organizations. The Liberal Democracy Institute—a think tank which I lead—is one example. When I asked why I was banned from participating in the dialogue, I was told that my political views on Israel were disliked by the Nasserist dialogue organizers. 

Other public figures with political orientations that are displeasing to the leftist/Nasserist organizers have been likewise excluded, including Dr. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a prominent Egyptian-American sociologist and one of the oldest advocates of political reform and democratization in Egypt. His think tank, the Ibn Khaldun Center for Democratic Studies, is the oldest think tank in the Arab world focusing on civil society and democratization, yet it, too, was excluded. Notably, Dr. Ibrahim had previously spoken at Israeli universities. The absence of liberal pro-West activists at the dialogue was all the more noticeable given the invitation for Salafist figures to attend. 

Despite the inefficiencies, there is a bright side to these gatherings. In the best-case scenario, the involved parties may use the momentum to directly express grievances. Already, former foreign minister Amr Moussa asserted that “internal mistakes” are partly to blame for Egypt’s current crises. Participants may be able to pressure for the release of their affiliated political prisoners or for some minor reforms to certain legislations and policies that are in line with the agenda of the state. Examples include the calls for making laws to control population growth, extending judicial supervision over elections, amending the notorious pre-trial detention law, and perhaps launching a commission for anti-discrimination wherein some of the leftist opposition figures could be appointed.

Nevertheless, the most controversial topics that would likely challenge state leadership will be completely avoided. At the inauguration of the national dialogue in early May, the dialogue’s coordinator Diaa Rashwan declared the following three topics off-limits: “the existing constitution, foreign policy issues, and national security issues.” 

When Sisi called for a comprehensive dialogue last year, hopes were high that Egyptian political life would finally be revitalized out of the rut of autocracy that has been dragging it down for decades. Indeed, the idea of incremental reforms rather than revolution appeals to most citizens, politicians, and activists in Egypt today. However, the shape and format of the final product of the so-called “national dialogue” turned out to be disappointing. The mere fact that certain topics and individuals have been deliberately excluded makes it hard to believe that the dialogue could contribute any tangible solutions to Egypt’s chronic political dysfunctions. The fact that dialogue discussions have now been suspended only reiterates this point.

This article was first published on Fikra Forum of the Washington Institute

مصر: حوار وطني أم مناورة سياسية؟

 

بعد شهر واحد فقط من انطلاق "الحوار الوطني" رسميًا في مصر، دعا المنسقون إلى تعليق الدورات المستقبلية مؤقتًا، متذرّعين بأن قاعة المؤتمرات المخصصة لعقد الجلسات قد تضررت نتيجة عاصفة رملية خفيفة ضربت القاهرة في الأول من حزيران/يونيو. ونظرًا لعدم منطقية هذا التبرير، يشكك المراقبون في أن يكون منسقو الحوار قد أوقفوا الجلسات فعلًا بسبب العاصفة، مرجحين أن يكون السبب هو تجنب الصدام بين الأحزاب السياسية المشاركة بسبب الهجمات العنيفة الأخيرة التي استهدفت انتخابات نقابة المهندسين المصرية الأسبوع الماضي. 

فقبل يومين من العاصفة، شنت مجموعة هجومًا عنيفًا متعمدًا على نقابة المهندسين المصرية أثناء التصويت على بقاء نقيب المهندسين الحالي، طارق النبراوي، في منصبه، وهو شخصية مستقلة لا تنتمي إلى أي جهة السياسية. وفي حين فتح المدعي العام تحقيقًا في الحادث المروع، تشير مقاطع الفيديو التي التقطها شهود العيان، والتحقيقات التي أجرتها الصحافة المحلية، إلى أن عددًا من نواب حزب "مستقبل وطن" كانوا يقودون المهاجمين ويشاركون شخصيًا في الاعتداء.

ويُشار إلى أن حزب "مستقبل وطن" يملك الأكثرية في مجلس النواب الحالي. وقد أُسّس الحزب في تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر 2014 بعد بضعة أشهر على وصول عبد الفتاح السيسي إلى سدة الرئاسة. وانضم الكثيرون من الشخصيات الموالية لنظام مبارك إلى هذا الحزب وفازوا في معظم الدوائر الانتخابية الموالية لـ "الحزب الوطني الديمقراطي" المنحل الذي كان يتزعمه مبارك. وجدير بالذكر أن أحد نواب حزب "مستقبل وطن" الذي ظهر في لقطات الاعتداء على النقابة هو عضو بارز في "الحزب الوطني الديمقراطي" وسبق أن اتُّهم باستئجار الخيول والجمال لمهاجمة المتظاهرين السلميين في ميدان التحرير خلال الربيع العربي في مصر عام 2011.

بعبارات أخرى، ليست العاصفة الرملية هي التي أحبطت آفاق الحوار الوطني، بل حقيقة أن هذا الحادث العنيف الذي وقع مؤخرًا كشف بدرجة كبيرة عن هشاشة الحوار وافتقاره إلى المصداقية. فحتى قبل الهجوم، لم يكن لما يسمى بـ "الحوار الوطني" في مصر علاقة تُذكر بعنوانه الرنّان. فلا هو حوار ولا هو مسألة وطنية، بل سلسلة خطابات منظمة برعاية الدولة ضمن إطار زمني لا متناهٍ، ومصممة بعناية لاستمالة المعارضة الضعيفة، ولكن الصريحة للرئيس المصري عبد الفتاح السيسي ولتحسين صورة القاهرة المشوهة بنظر الغرب. 

لقد كان أتباع مبارك والناصريون الأكثر انتقادًا لسياسات السيسي على مدى السنوات التسع الماضية. وتتمحور أبرز انتقاداتهم حول المقارنات بين الحقبة الراهنة وذكرياتهم عن حقبتَي حكمهما السابقتَين اللتين يحنّون إليهما. وتشعر هاتان المجموعتان بالغربة في ظل الوضع الحالي، خصوصًا إزاء تعاون الدولة الثنائي والإقليمي المفتوح والمتزايد مع إسرائيل. ويضع اليساريون، على وجه الخصوص، العداء تجاه إسرائيل في صميم أيديولوجيتهم السياسية.

واندرج إبقاء هاتين المجموعتين منشغلتين تحت ستار الحوار الوطني ضمن استراتيجيات الدولة لتهدئة التوترات السياسية ونزع فتيل الغضب الشعبي الموجه ضد الحكومة في وقت تتغلب فيه مصر على الأزمة الاقتصادية غير المسبوقة التي وقعت العام الماضي. في غضون ذلك، يمكن أن تسمح مثل هذه المحادثات والتجمعات لممثلي الدولة بإجراء اتصالات مباشرة مع شخصيات معارضة بارزة وإقناعها بالتحالف مع الدولة قبل الانتخابات الرئاسية المرتقبة في عام 2024. ولكن من المستبعد أن يحقق الحوار الوطني نتائج لاحقة أبعد من ذلك. 

فقد أمضى منظمو الحوار الوطني عامًا كاملًا في التحضيرات اللوجستية وتشكيل اللجان واللجان الفرعية وتوظيف المقررين وغيرهم من الموظفين لهذه اللجان. وعلى الرغم من فترة التخطيط الطويلة، لم يدعُ المنظمون الفصائل الرئيسية في المجتمع المدني المصري إلى ما تم تسويقه على أنه حوار "وطني وشامل وجامع".

استُبعدت مجموعتان عمدًا من الحوار الوطني، إحداهما هي جماعة الإخوان المسلمين، وهي منظمة غير قانونية في مصر، والأخرى هي جماعات الناشطين الموالية للغرب والمؤيدة للسلام في المنطقة ومنظمات المجتمع المدني، على غرار "معهد الديمقراطية الليبرالية"، وهو مركز أبحاث أترأسه شخصيًا. وعندما سألت عن سبب منعي من المشاركة في الحوار، قيل لي إن آرائي السياسية حول إسرائيل لا تروق لمنظمي الحوار الناصريين.

فضلًا عن ذلك، استُبعدت شخصيات عامة أخرى ذات توجهات سياسية لا ترضي المنظمين اليساريين/الناصريين، من بينها الدكتور سعد الدين إبراهيم، وهو عالم اجتماع مصري أمريكي بارز وأحد أقدم المدافعين عن الإصلاح السياسي والتحول الديمقراطي في مصر. ويُعد مركز الأبحاث التابع له، "ابن خلدون للدراسات الديمقراطية"، أقدم مركز أبحاث في العالم العربي يركز على المجتمع المدني والتحول الديمقراطي، ومع ذلك تم استبعاده هو أيضًا. والجدير بالذكر أن الدكتور إبراهيم كان قد تحدث سابقًا في الجامعات الإسرائيلية. وكان غياب الناشطين الليبراليين الموالين للغرب عن الحوار ملحوظًا بشكل خاص نظرًا إلى دعوة شخصيات سلفية إلى حضور جلسات الحوار. 

على الرغم من أوجه القصور، ثمة جانب مشرق لهذه التجمعات. في أفضل الأحوال، قد تستخدم الأطراف المعنية هذا الزخم للتعبير مباشرةً عن تظلماتها. وبالفعل، أكد وزير الخارجية السابق عمرو موسى أن "الأخطاء الداخلية" مسؤولةٌ جزئيًا عن الأزمات الحالية في مصر. وقد يتمكن المشاركون من الضغط لإطلاق سراح السجناء السياسيين التابعين لهم أو لإجراء إصلاحات طفيفة على بعض التشريعات والسياسات التي تتماشى مع أجندة الدولة. ومن الأمثلة على ذلك الدعوات إلى سن قوانين للسيطرة على النمو السكاني، وتوسيع نطاق الإشراف القضائي على الانتخابات، وتعديل القانون الشهير بشأن الاحتجاز السابق للمحاكمة، وربما أيضًا إطلاق لجنة لمكافحة التمييز يمكن فيها تعيين بعض شخصيات المعارضة اليسارية. 

مع ذلك، سيتم تجنب المواضيع الأكثر إثارة للجدل التي تتعارض على الأرجح مع قيادة الدولة. ففي افتتاح الحوار الوطني في أوائل أيار/مايو، أعلن منسق الحوار، ضياء رشوان، أن المواضيع الثلاثة التالية محظورة: "الدستور الحالي، وقضايا السياسة الخارجية، وقضايا الأمن القومي". 

عندما دعا السيسي العام الماضي إلى حوار شامل، عُقدت آمال كبيرة على تفعيل الحياة السياسية في مصر أخيرًا للخروج من نفق الاستبداد الذي يسبب تراجعها منذ عقود. في الواقع، تروق فكرة الإصلاحات التدريجية بدلًا من الثورة لمعظم المواطنين والسياسيين والناشطين في مصر اليوم. ولكن تبيَّن أن صيغة وشكل المنتج النهائي لما يسمى بـ "الحوار الوطني" مخيب للآمال. فمع استبعاد بعض المواضيع والأفراد عمدًا، يصعب التصديق أن الحوار قد يسهم في أي حلول ملموسة للاختلالات السياسية المزمنة في مصر. وما تعليق مناقشات الحوار سوى تأكيد جديد على هذه النقطة.

تم نشر هذا المقال أولاً في منتدى فكرة التابع لمعهد واشنطن لدراسات الشرق الأدنى

MEMRI: Egyptian Liberal Writer Dalia Ziada Condemns Egyptians Celebrating Recent Killing Of Three Israeli Soldiers:

I am grateful for Middle East Media Research Institute for taking the time and effort to translate into English and document my denunciation of the recent killing of Israeli soldiers by an Egyptian policeman on the borders. Below is the text published by MEMRI:

Egyptian Liberal Writer Dalia Ziada Condemns Egyptians Who Are Celebrating And Justifying Recent Killing Of Three Israeli Soldiers: They Are Unpatriotic, Terrorists, Or Potential Terrorists

In response to the widespread celebration on social media[1] of the killing of three Israeli soldiers on June 3, 2023 by an Egyptian policeman – a terror attack hailed as heroic and justified because the victims were Jewish and/or Israeli – Dalia Ziada, an Egyptian writer who is executive director of MEEM Center for Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean Studies, strongly voiced her opposition to this trend.

Stating emphatically that those who celebrated and justified the attack are either terrorists or potential terrorists who might target their Christian neighbors if given the opportunity, Ziada wrote on her Facebook page, which has 30,000 followers, on June 4, 2023 that Israel should not be viewed as an enemy of Egypt, as it has supported Egypt on multiple occasions. She further stressed that "anyone who truly loves Egypt" cannot rejoice over such an event or "consider it heroic in any way."

The following are translations of Ziada's Facebook posts criticizing celebrations of the attack.

"Anyone Who Truly Loves Egypt Cannot Possibly Be Joyful Or Celebrate Such An Event, Nor Consider It A Heroic Act In Any Way"

Ziada wrote on Facebook on June 4, 2023: "A little bit of reason... This is not a match between [top Egyptian football clubs] Al Ahly and Al-Zamalek. It's about Egypt's national security.

"To those who are glorifying and justifying the attack carried out by an Egyptian security officer against Israeli soldiers yesterday, who exactly are you? What is your precise interest in doing so? Anyone who truly loves Egypt cannot possibly be joyful or celebrate such an event, nor consider it a heroic act in any way.

"First: What heroic act is there in trespassing the borders of a neighboring country with which we have a peace treaty and years of security cooperation, as well as countless economic interests? What has been achieved by killing soldiers who were stationed at their own borders, in a treacherous act that lacks any logical justification, except the desire of those behind it (using the security officer as a pawn) to ignite conflict between Egypt and Israel or, at the very least, to create a rift in their excellent relationship? Or perhaps the perpetrator is driven by extremist religious motives, such as those calling for the killing of Jews based on their religious identity, which is completely detrimental to Egypt and contradicts the principles of the Egyptian state.

"Second: This incident could cause significant harm to Egypt's interests if it is not promptly addressed and contained by the Egyptian and Israeli authorities. The best way, in my opinion, to contain it is through transparent investigations supervised by both parties, along with taking all necessary measures to prevent its recurrence. This is exactly what the Egyptian defense minister promised his Israeli counterpart in a phone call shortly after the incident."

Egypt-Israel Cooperation "Has Been One Of The Most Important Factors In Egypt's Success In Overcoming A Very Critical Phase In Its History"

"If you don't understand how Egypt's interests could be affected by an incident like this, take a look at the map:

"Not to mention the constant threat posed by conflicts in these three locations to Egypt's national security.

"In light of all this, Egypt cannot afford to engage in a security or political battle (which is unnecessary and illogical) with Israel. The unprecedented cooperation between Egypt and Israel in recent years has been one of the most important factors in Egypt's success in overcoming a very critical phase in its history, amidst combating terrorism and facing immense economic challenges.

"During the period between 2013 and 2015, when Hamas elements infiltrated Sinai and later pledged allegiance to ISIS, Israeli forces were fighting alongside Egyptian forces against terrorism in Sinai.

"At a time when the entire world stood against Egypt after the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, and as there were calls for imposing diplomatic and economic sanctions on Egypt, Israeli officials defended the modern Egyptian state in international forums. I personally heard them clearly say, 'The security and stability of Egypt under Sisi are necessary for the security and stability of Israel.'

"[This is] not to mention the economic cooperation between Egypt and Israel in discovering and extracting gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and selling it to Europe and Asia. Israel chose to cooperate with Egypt in this matter over any other country in the Mediterranean basin, giving Egypt the ability to fulfill its dream of becoming an energy hub in the region, despite all the geopolitical complications and maritime border disputes."

"Israel Is Not An Enemy Of Egypt... It Has Stood By Egypt's Side In Its Most Critical Times"

"Israel is not an enemy of Egypt... I say it again: Israel is not an enemy of Egypt. Israel is Egypt's direct neighbor and one of the countries that stood by Egypt in its most critical times. There is absolutely no reason to ignite conflict with it. Anyone who does so or encourages it harms Egypt's interests greatly.

"This is a word of truth that I wanted to convey to people with rational minds, especially considering all the positive and loving attitudes of Israel towards Egypt that I have witnessed firsthand, and I am confident that the relevant authorities in Egypt fully understand the importance of all the points I mentioned and act accordingly, regardless of the usual media frenzy surrounding the issue.

"May God have mercy on the victims of the incident and protect the security, stability, and cooperation between Egypt and Israel."[2]

"Do Not Encourage Or Cheer For Extremism"; "The True Muslim Does Not Betray Those With Whom He Has A Covenant And Agreement"

In a subsequent post on June 7, 2023, Ziada wrote: "Every demagogue today who tries to justify celebrating the killing of Israeli soldiers on our borders by labeling them as Jews, or who believes according to his sick perspective that it as permissible to kill them even if they were peaceful and had not committed any aggression against them, is in reality either a terrorist or a potential terrorist.

"Just as they targeted their Jewish neighbor on the border, they will, as soon as they have the opportunity, target their Christian neighbor on their street. It is they who harass and assault women and slaughter them in broad daylight if they refuse to marry them.

"Do not encourage or cheer for extremism. The true Muslim is he who 'would not harm people by his tongue and his hand' (and here we are talking about all creatures to whom the description of people on Earth applies, not only Muslims).

"The true Muslim does not those with whom he has a covenant and agreement, no matter what happens. On the contrary, it is his duty to protect them if necessary. [Betrayal] is not the morality of the Prophet, the morality of the Companions, or even the morality of the Egyptians. Wake up, people."[3]

----- 

[1] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10656, Qatar-Affiliated Journalists, Clerics: The Egyptian Border Guard Who Perpetrated The Deadly Shooting Of Israeli Soldiers Is 'A Real Hero,' 'A Martyr' And 'The Pride Of The Arabs,' June 8, 2023, and MEMRI JTTM report Jihadis Eulogize Egyptian Policeman Who Killed Three Israeli Soldiers, Pray That Others Are Inspired To Attack Jews, June 6, 2023.

[2] Facebook.com/daliaziada/posts/pfbid034ETXCx5Ktn6QMCt4HJo3gPZSMyyA21U2h8qDNQWUWsUs9dBQkHhG5rQTVMUV4kGjl, June 4, 2023.

[3] Facebook.com/daliaziada/posts/pfbid0Mg5BdULvQTBjf6oXhgvEod2cB5tNQTMo7yvMErtVFJ9UqYhkRAV12Xm5D3LvsxjZl, June 7, 2023.

Dalia Ziada interview on Kann News TV about Egyptians' reaction to Egypt-Israel border shooting

 

The Israeli Kann News TV interviewed Dalia Ziada to discuss the recent border shooting on Egypt-Israel border that led to the killing of three Israeli soldiers by an Egyptian security guard in early June 2023.